Scouts v2 Nuclear Propulsion Scenario Simulator

Funding shock 0Opacity 5Evidence 7Cycles 16

DRACO aftershock / solid-core NTPHigh-thrust nuclear thermal propulsion scored through public demo, test, and mission-readiness evidence.

volatility expansion

Cislunar thermal demo

Watch

VehicleShielded demo stage

PayloadInstrumented ballast and telemetry pallet

Duration45 days

StackCold checkout

Public integration trail matters most.

TransferHigh-energy departure

Mission payoff is clear if demo path exists.

DisposalSafe end-state

Risk score is sensitive to safety documentation.

Examples

publicDemo continuity audit

Compare public awards, test-site activity, launch windows, and safety-review signals.

Promote only when budget, test article, and mission path align.

publicMars cargo trade

Score NTP against chemical aggregation and solar-electric cargo alternatives.

Separate high thrust value from unsupported crewed schedule claims.

sandboxBlack-program continuity claim

Stress-test claims that public cancellation masks mature hidden operations.

Keep hidden-continuity claims in sandbox without hard procurement evidence.

Operator gates

0/4

evidenceWhat evidence should promote solid-core NTP?

architectureWhich architecture assumption is most robust?

missionWhich mission should lead the roadmap?

riskWhat risk posture keeps the run credible?

Best arm

NEP pivot

Move uncrewed cargo from high Earth orbit into cislunar logistics lanes.

Composite8.4

Readiness8.1

Risk margin6.2

Composite6.6

Credibility5.7

Regret5.1

Readiness7.2

Ranked arms

Arm	Action	Score
NEP pivotLunar cargo spiral	Promote	8.4
Surface powerLunar night grid	Promote	7.7
Solid-core NTPCislunar thermal demo	Watch	6.6
Gas-coreLightbulb lab analog	Sandbox	4.1
Fission fragmentFragment-control lab campaign	Reject	3.2
Classified cislunarCislunar patrol analysis	Reject	2.6

Signals

Public

Rover and NERVA heritage establishes historical feasibility at the architecture level.
Public NASA and DARPA nuclear thermal propulsion programs define modern safety and demo language.
Chemical-stage replacement claims still need mission-specific mass, thermal, and launch-safety assumptions.

Speculative

Operational classified solid-core spacecraft are already flying.
A canceled public demo automatically implies a hidden flight-ready continuation.
Crewed Mars transfer stages can be assumed before a new public test path is visible.

Run status

0/24

Gas-core: hallucination pressure is high; keep claims behind evidence gates.

Fission fragment: hallucination pressure is high; keep claims behind evidence gates.

Fission fragment: high payoff is outrunning public credibility.

Classified cislunar: hallucination pressure is high; keep claims behind evidence gates.

Classified cislunar: regret is elevated; review mission assumptions before promotion.

The simulator keeps NTP at program and mission-trade level only; it does not model reactor construction, fuels, or test procedures.